Bitcoin halving date bet vs. Groundhog prediction: Choose your fighter

Bitcoin (BTC) halving, a historic event that is set to cut the Bitcoin mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, is coming sometime in April 2024, but the exact date is yet to be determined, at least on this Groundhog Day.

Based on various Bitcoin halving countdown trackers, including those by NiceHash and BitcoinBlockHalf.com, the fourth Bitcoin halving could occur in a period from April 8 to April 22, 2024.

The estimations suggest that the fourth halving of Bitcoin might occur in 66 to 79 days from now on, depending on factors like the block height, hash rate and mining difficulty.

Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs once 210,000 blocks, which is estimated to happen each four years. The upcoming Bitcoin halving is set to occur on block 840,000, leaving only 11,449 blocks to be mined from the current 828,551 blocks at the time of writing, according to data from BlockExplorer.

The problem with estimating the date of the Bitcoin halving by different countdown trackers is that one is very unlikely to accurately forecast the exact date until it actually happens.

“I think it has something to do with how the algorithms interpret the data,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan told Cointelegraph. He added:

“Such poetic cadence, inscribed by Satoshi. The precise time of the event will remain a mystery until the exact moment it occurs.”

A similar sentiment was shared in the Bitcoin community on the major crypto forum, BitcoinTalk. Some observers suggested that the estimates adjust based on bi-weekly — or, technically, every 2,016 blocks — Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustments.

According to historical records, all three Bitcoin halvings took different periods to happen. The first halving event occurred on Nov. 28, 2012, or 1,425 days after Bitcoin’s launch on Jan. 3, 2009. The second halving event occurred in 1,319 days on July 9, 2016. The third Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, after 1,402 days.

Related: Bitcoin halving 2024 — Miners predict potential outcomes of reduced BTC rewards

Since the last Bitcoin halving, which happened on May 11, 2020, a total of 1,362 days has passed at the time of writing.

Despite the unlikeliness of estimating the exact Bitcoin halving day yet, the community is largely betting on April 20, 2024, which is an international counterculture holiday and a meme based on the celebration and consumption of cannabis.

“The projected Bitcoin halving date is 4/20. We live in the best simulation,” one industry observer posted on the social media platform X on Feb. 1.

The community has yet to find out whether the spring’s halving will happen on April 20. The only thing that is known is that the community should expect an early spring, as groundhog Punxsutawney Phil just predicted.

Phil’s accuracy rate is reportedly about 40% on average over the past decade.

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