Altseason is coming — or at least data suggests that its close

Bitcoin (BTC) price witnessed a sharp correction shortly after hitting a new all-time high at $69,324 on March 5

Meanwhile, altcoins, led by memecoins and AI-themed cryptocurrencies, have outperformed BTC over the last week, initiating a debate on whether the altcoin season (altseason) is here.

Total crypto market capitalization hits $2.5 trillion

Bitcoin’s brief escapade above $69,000 on March 5 saw the global crypto market value cross the $2.5 million mark, reflecting the current bullish momentum. At the time of publishing, this figure stands at $2.52 trillion, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Altcoins displayed similar strength, with their total market capitalization (see chart below) rising above $1.1 trillion on the same day. This metric measures the total market value of all crypto assets except Bitcoin.

Over the last three months, this value has rallied approximately 64% from $697 billion to $1.14 trillion on March 7. This is a slightly better performance than the 56% posted by Bitcoin over the same period.

This ascent attests to growing investor interest in altcoins and the amazing performance recently displayed by this class of crypto assets.

Large-cap altcoins outperform Bitcoin

The tremendous rally displayed by memecoins and AI over the last week could be a sign that the market is at the start of the altseason.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows memecoins posting double and triple-digit gains within the last seven days.

In particular, Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), posted 20% and 130% gains this week, respectively. Newer tokens such as Pepe (PEPE), Bonk (BONK) and dogwifhat (WIF) saw double to triple-digit gains during the same period.

Other notable performances came from tokens within the AI ecosystem led by Fetch.ai (FET), Synesis One (SNS), SingularityNET (AGIX) and Theta Network (THETA), which also produced double to triple-digit gains in 7 days.

Bitcoin has only risen 8.5% over the same period.

It’s not altseason, yet

The performance of the altcoins seemingly coincides with an improvement in the altcoin season index, indicating that the altcoin season is close. According to this index by Blockchain Center:

“If 75% of the top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days), it is Altcoin Season.”

This indicator essentially demonstrates that only 69% of the leading 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days. Although this index has increased over the last few days, it is still insufficient to declare an altcoin season.

However, according to a recent market report by K33 Research, this could change soon. The report noted that Bitcoin’s rally toward its new all-time high saw its market cap double relative to the value of all cryptocurrencies except BTC and Ether (ETH) since the bottom of November 2022.

Related: Bitcoin accumulation phase ends as ETFs fuel new $100K BTC price target

The K33 Research analysts said the setup mirrors the 2020 altcoin bull run just before they caught up with Bitcoin’s uptrend.

“Judging by history, altcoins will start outperforming about the time we are now.”

Independent analyst CrediBULL dives into the connection between Bitcoin’s performance at the start of the altseason. In a March 4 post in X, CrediBULL outlines two possible scenarios:

A mega breakout when Bitcoin breaks its prior ATH and quickly doubles in a matter of weeks, and “alts don't get much love until BTC pauses after this breakout leg,” and a consolidation scenario where Bitcoin revisits its prior ATH but faces rejection or consolidates at the highs for a few weeks. In the latter case, altcoins “start rallying almost immediately after BTC tags prior to ATH. ”

CrediBull says,

“The common theme here and the key takeaway is that after BTC hits prior ATH, alts begin rallying at the first major pause/consolidation of BTC, whether that at prior ATH or far above it.”

However, founder and CEO of MN Trading Consultancy Michaël van de Poppe believes that the altcoin season is yet to kick in, pointing out that they still have “40-60% market capitalization” before it reaches the 2021 highs above $1.1 trillion.

On his part, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes that the altcoin season will start once DOGE overtakes ADA in market capitalization. In a March 5 post on X social media platform, Hoskinson said,

“That moment DOGE flips Cardano. It’s officially alt-season kids.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.